Thursday, January 24, 2013

Could President Obama Be Making A Huge Mistake?

President Obama is going all in for gun control - including turning the full force of his campaign on Democratic House and Senate members who were elected as being "pro-gun".  Is it possible that he is making a huge mistake?

Many Democrats remember 1994.  After passing a much more reasonable Assault Weapons Ban (and magazine restrictions) they lost both the House and the Senate for the first time in 50 years.  Several high profile Democrats switched parties.  They have spent the last 20 years recovering from that disaster - largely by allowing Dems in pro-gun areas to court gun owners.  It has worked.  12 Democratic Senators (including Sen. Harry Reid) and even more Democratic Representatives are rated highly by the NRA (B, A, or A+) - while most Dems rate "F".  Every one of these politicians knows that if they fold on this issue, they won't be reelected.  Their political lives are on the line.  They are effectively being told to commit political suicide - because this new gun ban is much, much more radical AND support for gun rights is much, much higher.

These are moderate Democrats.  I think that if they are pressured hard enough, and if Republicans court them, at least some may switch parties - or go independent and caucus with the Republicans.  Given a choice between voting with the Dems and against their constituent's (and perhaps their own) views, they may just decide to bolt.

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